文章摘要
庄 圆,纪棋严,左军成,李直龙,罗凤云.海平面上升对中国沿海地区极值水位 重现期的影响[J].海洋科学进展,2021,39(1):20-29
  
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6647.2021.01.003
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海平面上升对中国沿海地区极值水位 重现期的影响
Effects of Sea-Level Rise on the Recurrence Periods of Extreme Water Levels in Coastal Areas of China
作者单位
庄 圆,纪棋严,左军成,李直龙,罗凤云 浙江海洋大学 海洋科学与技术学院浙江 舟山 316022 
中文摘要:
      基于中国沿海10个验潮站资料,利用皮尔森Ⅲ型(P-Ⅲ)模型探讨了典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathway,RCP)情景下21世纪海平面上升对中国沿海地区极值水位重现期的影响。结果表明:海平面上升将显著缩短极值水位的重现期。在RCP8.5情景下极值水位的重现期缩短最为显著。预估到2050年,在RCP8.5情景下,所研究的中国沿海地区潮位站的百年一遇极值水位将变为9~43 a一遇。到2100年,在RCP8.5情景下,百年一遇极值水位变为1~18 a一遇。当前极值水位的低概率事件将在2100年变得普遍,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年千年一遇的几乎每两百年发生一次。由于极值水位的重现期会随着气候变化而缩短,未来沿海地区将会面临更严峻的风险与挑战。
中文关键词: 重现期  极值水位  海平面上升  中国沿海地区  气候变化  风险管理
英文摘要:
      Based on the data of 10 tide-gauge stations along the coasts of China, the effects of sea-level rise on the recurrence of extreme water level of Chinaʼs coastal areas in the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario were explored with the Pearson Ⅲ (P-Ⅲ) model. The results show that sea level rise may significantly shorten the recurrence of extreme water level. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the recurrence of extreme water level was shortened most significantly. The once-in-a-century extreme water level at the 10 tide stations are estimated to change to recurrence periods of 9-43 years by 2050 and 1-18 years by 2100. In generally, the current low probability events of extreme water level is expected to be common by 2100. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the 1 000-year recurrence period will be shortened to almost 200 years by 2100.
英文关键词: recurrence period  extreme water level  sea level rise  coast of China  climate change  risk management
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目—“全球变化及应对”重点专项——海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究(2017YFA0604902)
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